The Good News for the GOP Is Only Temporary

But the Republican Party did more to alienate college-educated youth Voters in recent years more than ever. A nationwide survey was conducted in late September The College Pulse survey of more than 1,500 students at 285 different colleges and universities shows that nearly three-quarters of college-age voters do not believe the Republican Party represents them in any capacity. Sixty-six percent of students today cannot imagine registering as Republicans in the next ten years, when their voices will be strongest. And eye-catching 43 percent of respondents think the Republican Party is emphatically racist. Only 31 percent disagree. (The survey, which we co-sponsored, was conducted by College Pulse, a student survey company that frequently provides data to researchers. Online surveys are weighted and rebalanced to reflect the national college student population.)

Young, educated voters have favored Democratic candidates for decades, but the gap has widened more than before. Perhaps the most revealing: The survey shows that the Republican Party has become so directly associated with racist and unconstitutional attitudes that most students strike as further. They view Republicans as a threat to their future, and to democracy in general.

However, there is some evidence that this view is harmful It can’t be fixed—in part because college students don’t sympathize strongly with the Democratic Party. They might vote Democrat, but only 18% think the party is moving in the right direction. Democrats Taking advantage of the widespread hatred of Republicans, but the party itself does not inspire loyalty.

Latest poll shows way forward for Republicans if They embrace moderate reforms around race, women’s health, and the environment. This poses a dilemma for a party that has tightened itself behind the attitudes that motivate the aging Republican base: These are precisely the policies it will have to abandon slowly if Republicans are to have a chance in the future.

This future is coming Sooner than many analysts believe. The Republican base of older, non-college white voters will shrink rapidly in the coming years, leaving the party with a small number of elderly voters. Party candidates have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections—and with Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Ohio turning younger and more educated, Republicans are in danger of losing their advantage in the Electoral College, too. .

The gender gap is particularly threatening to Republicans. Over the past few election cycles, women have been much more likely than men to vote for and vote for Democrats than Republicans. This appears to be true in the last elections as well. In the College Pulse data, only 8 percent of women identified as strong or weak Republicans while 42 percent identified as strong or weak Democrats. On the other hand, men are twice as likely (16 percent) to be Republican — but again, more than them (24 percent) are strong or weak Democrats.

Democrats have a decisive advantage with college women, one of the fastest growing groups of voters and a demographic group that has recently been more politically active than men. Young women, for example, are more likely to protest (36 percent) than young men (20 percent). Research has also found that young women, including young black and Latino women, are generally more active as voters and participants in social movements than young men.

However, a significant number of young men and women are considered either independent or “skinny”, 52 percent of men in the latest survey and 40 percent of women – revealing a real breakup of both parties and an opportunity in the event that one party goes to court with them. . This is serious news for the GOP: With the mix of current far-right positions, women won’t support the GOP in the future, and men aren’t locked in either.

The data indicates that However, Republicans can reverse their downfall by abandoning attitudes that clearly alienate today’s young, pragmatic and moderate voters, particularly opposition to same-sex marriage, climate change denial, anti-vaccine rhetoric and anti-mask extremism. It is these Republican positions that young, college-educated voters find most dismissive. To lay the foundation for its future, the Republican Party needs to find a way to iron out positions on these social issues.

The dilemma facing Republican candidates is that the tactics needed to win an election now jeopardize future elections. They’ve made inroads through attacks on racial “wake up”, abortion and environmental regulations, which may win primaries and galvanize the current party base but clearly alienate the voters needed to win the general election in the future.

The party’s recent victories in Virginia and other states will only help Republicans if they move beyond suburban families to budding educated voters. Today’s students, not soccer moms or angry Trump crowds, are It will determine the future of American politics.

Our poll shows that young voters with a college education currently view the Republican Party as a Donald Trump sect. They almost universally reject this cult. Evidence suggests that they have more respect for established, more moderate figures, including Senator Mitt Romney (of Utah) and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.

College students are simply not as partisan as people think. They have a strong bias against the extremist positions of the current Republican Party, but they are not strong Democrats either. They play the role of creative, progressive and moderate political figures as well. In the next decade, it will be the party that succeeds nationally that finds a way to get that next electoral majority.

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